The 2024 presidential election continues to be the closest of the century. In fact, it is the closest race for the White House in the past 60 years.
Polling since the September 10 debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shows that while the vice president seems to have opened up a slight national edge over her Republican rival, their race remains well within the margin of error and too close to call. This is especially the case when looking at the Electoral College.
The fact that no one has led by at least 5 points this cycle is noteworthy because it’s incredibly rare. Even in races that end up being very close, one candidate at some point almost always builds a significant advantage. This year, most voters seem locked in.
Even Harris’ dominating debate performance over Trump – according to the voters – has only appeared to move the dial by a few points.
The former president holds a good lead in the Sun Belt, where he leads the vice president by a wide margin in Arizona and is leading among likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina, according to a poll by the New York Times and Siena College.
The race in North Carolina, which Trump won by just 75,000 votes in 2020, is very tight. The former president is leading Harris in the polls, 49 percent to 47 percent.
The White House contest and the path to 270 electoral votes traverses squarely via Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Harris has a 2.9-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.
There has been a 10-point shift in Arizona, compared to the last NYT poll in August. Trump now has a 5-point lead in the state.
This is a stark change from the same poll in August, when Harris led in both Arizona and North Carolina, within the margin error.
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